# MISSION — pdoomcount.org

*Staged at gs-private `state/pdoomcount/` (canonical project-state location) until the
project repo is founded in Dev Work. Move to the project repo at founding.*

## What this is at maturity

A public website that maintains a live, clinical estimate of the probability that AI
causes a terminal catastrophe for humanity — an honest number with its reasoning
trail, updated on a schedule and moved only by documented events.

The register is **actuarial, not apocalyptic**: an instrument that reads like an
insurance risk table or a lab readout, not a doom blog. No countdown theatrics,
no black backgrounds, no monetized fear.

## The founding thesis (operator, 2026-09-15)

The most plausible route to AI-caused catastrophe is probably not a superintelligence
erupting in a lab — it is the **mundane deployment path**: capitalism pushing
not-ready AI into sensitive systems (grid, military, health, finance, logistics)
to save money, faster than verification, liability, or regulation can follow.
The methodology must track that route as a first-class gauge, not a footnote.

## Non-negotiables

1. **"An index of judgments, not a measurement"** — stated on the front page. The
   number aggregates published forecasts and conditions them through a documented
   rubric; it is not observed data.
2. **Every number is attributable.** Full source ledger, per-version archived
   calculations, every movement tied to logged events with rationale.
3. **Uncertainty is always displayed.** A point value with no band is dishonest on
   this subject.
4. **Falsifiability is symmetric.** "What would move this number down" sits beside
   the number itself.
5. **No bombast.** Clinical language, plain numbers, sourced claims.
6. **The mundane-deployment path is a named gauge** (see methodology).

## Audience

Curious, serious general readers; people in tech and policy who want one honest
number with receipts instead of vibes. Not a doomer subculture product.

## Out of scope

Doom-mongering, clickbait, ads, advocacy for any single ideology or lab,
prediction-market gambling products.