An index of published judgments, not a measurement. The site mixes named forecasts from the Tier A ledger, then applies a documented news rubric. Live markets sit in a later slot, out of this snapshot. How the number is made →
Mechanical triggers, all UNMET at genesis: binding compute/training-run caps covering a majority of frontier compute (D-GOV-TREATY); 365 days without a scored S2+ incident (D-INC-CLEAR); an independently replicated safety/interpretability result (D-INT-REPL); a documented pause or restored human-in-loop on a named critical class (D-DEP-PAUSE).
| Gauge | Value | Band | Trend | Since last | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 · Catastrophe ≥10% of humanity or civilizational collapse | 10.0% | 3.57 to 11.0IQR, n=5 | GENESIS | Headline | |
| G2 · Extinction Literal human extinction / FRI <5,000 | 1.69%unweighted midpoint | 0.38% and 3.0%both published points; no IQR | GENESIS | Thin panel | |
| G3 · Deployment cascade Premature deployment into critical systems compounding faster than oversight catches it | n = 0 | n/anot an aggregate | n/a | Constructed |
Premature deployment of insufficiently-verified AI into critical systems (grid, military command, health, finance, logistics), producing compounding failures that neither market nor regulator catches in time. Collapse-shaped, not extinction-shaped by necessity.
No row in the Tier A ledger is a published forecast of this event. Factors below are qualitative indicators, not a probability. C2 and C7 instrument the same thesis as conditions. At genesis those event lists are empty.
| Date | Source | As stated | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | Geoffrey HintonA-HINT-2024 · G2 · interval | 10% to 20% | ~30 years |
| 2026-09-09 | Evan HubingerA-HUB-2026 · G2 · bound | >10% | 10 years from Sep 2026 |
| Date | Event | Rubric category | Effect on G1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 · 16 | GENESIS-001. Founding static snapshot under methodology v0.1. Empty qualifying event list. M = 1.00 by default, not by scored news. | R-NULL · SJ-GENESIS | 0.0 pt |
| Category | Position in range | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Capability leaps | 1.00 | |
| Sensitive-systems deployment | 1.00 | |
| Governance & liability | 1.00 | |
| Safety & interpretability research | 1.00 | |
| Racing dynamics | 1.00 | |
| Incident record | 1.00 | |
| Autonomy dependency | 1.00 |
The site computes the aggregate from named, dated, cited forecasts. Vibes do not score. Only a primary numeric utterance scores. Surveys (current wave) and the XPT family share class weight 3.0; structured analyses 2.0; named statements 1.0, and in this snapshot none of them meet the 2100 horizon rule. Outliers stay on the ledger even when they do not score. Conflicts of interest are labeled in both directions. Leave-one-out: A-XPT-SF → 10.0%, A-CARL-2022 → 10.0%, A-AII-2024 → 7.5%, A-ORD-2020 → 10.0%, A-XPT-DE → 10.0%.
Tier A on the record: Ord, The Precipice (2020) · Carlsmith (2022) · AI Impacts 2024 (mixture) / 2023 (substitute-wave only) · XPT superforecasters and domain experts (FRI) · named near-term: Hinton 10% to 20%, Hubinger >10% · Bengio (no horizon) · LeCun (paraphrase, excluded) · Yudkowsky (UNVERIFIED, excluded). Tier B Metaculus/markets: out of the v1 mixture (unverified). Full receipts → source ledger · snapshot note